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张爱华博士学术报告

  发布日期:2017-8-24  浏览量:288


报告题目: Statistical analysis of Brexit voting patterns(对英国脱欧的大数据分析)

报告人:张爱华博士(英国莱斯特大学数学系讲师、精算学硕士点负责人)

报告时间201796(周三)  14:00-15:00

报告地点: 磬苑校区数学科学学院H117

报告摘要:

Much of the analysis about why the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016 has been done by looking at individual factors in isolation, or using opinion poll data from both before and after the vote.

In my recently-published research paper, I applied two statistical analyses to the actual referendum voting data obtained from the Electoral Commission and the UK’s latest census data. I found that while voters’ level of higher education was the most important factor, the gender of voters and the turnout level also had parts to play in the victory for the Leave campaign.

The first method I used was called a “multivariate regression” analysis – a powerful statistical technique used for predicting the unknown value of a dependent variable, such as the percentage of Leave votes, from variables that can explain it, such as education, turnout, age and gender. This method can answer the question: “How much does the percentage of Leave votes change when we alter a significant factor, keeping other factors unchanged?”

The other method I used, called a “logit regression”, is used to predict the odds ratio – the relative chance of an event occurring – of a majority of people voting to leave the EU. It can answer the question: “How much does the probability of voting for Leave change when we alter a significant factor, keeping other factors unchanged?”

The statistical analyses took into account various potential factors, such as turnout, income level, gender, education, unemployment, age, whether the person was UK-born and their social grades. They also took into account the change in British adult population between 2011, when the last census was conducted, and the referendum in 2016 to identify statistically significant factors that could have had an influence on the result and then to quantify their impact.

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专家简介:

Dr. Aihua Zhang, from an interdisciplinary background with formal training and experience in Economics, Actuarial Science, Econometrics, Financial Mathematics and Management, is the Program Director of Actuarial Science at the University of Leicester and a member of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' Risk and Customer Outcomes Working Party. She earned her PhD in Financial Mathematics in Germany in 2008. She studied/obtained several MScs in different subjects, including Financial Mathematics, Economics, Management (MBA) and Mathematics Education in Germany, China and UK. She previously worked at the University of Munich, University of St. Andrews, University of Glasgow and Nottingham University Business School China.

Dr. Zhang has developed recognition for very high impact research and significance. Her recently-published paper New Findings on “Key Factors Influencing the UK’s Referendum on Leaving the EU , in which she applied statistical methods to the actual referendum voting data, has been so widely reported on by a large number of (more than 100) media, resulting in a significant impact in both the UK and international media. Of particular note, the coverage includes: The Independent (with more than 41,000 shares); The Huffington Post ;Inside Higher Education; The National Student;Yahoo News and Breitbart. In addition to this there was an extensive discussion on Redditthat saw more than 5,200 comments made – this was in the Top 5 stories on world news for most of the week and showed public engagement on a mass scale. Dr. Zhang also conducted live international media interviews including with Radio Sputnik World Service, Moscow on her research findings. Following that, she was also invited by The Conversation to write an article, which hascreated further public engagement and significance.

Dr. Zhang was invited to review papers for a number of international journals such as Mathematical Finance, Applied Mathematics and Computation, Quantitative Finance, European Actuarial Journal, North American Actuarial Journal and Annals of Actuarial Science.

Dr. Zhang has successfully obtained and led as various prestigious research grants (including the National Natural Science Foundation of China) as a principal investigator.

[1] Published in World Development on 7 August 2017. Available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17302474

[2] Her article “What could have tipped the EU referendum result in favour of Remain” is available at https://theconversation.com/what-could-have-tipped-the-eu-referendum-result-in-favour-of-remain-82298

 

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